2024 elections: Biden or Trump?

Last week Donald Trump was found guilty of 34 counts of falsifying business records to conceal payments to an actress in 2016. He is accused of having led a plan to influence the elections. He faces up to 4 years in prison and this makes him the first former U.S. president convicted of crimes. Currently, according to the betting houses, Trump leads with a 52.4% probability of being elected, though closely followed by Biden at 40%.

Just a few months before the election, it's worth asking how the vote impacts the U.S. market.

First, when analyzing from 1950 to the present the S&P 500's post-election performance (from November to year-end) and comparing it with a normal year, we see there are no significant differences (2.3% with an election vs. 2.4% without one). This even though the weeks around the votes do tend to be more volatile than years without electoral events.

Biden or Trump? Looking at each one's post-election returns, Biden achieved 7% in 2020 while Trump only 4% in 2016. However, over the full term Donald Trump would appear to be the winner, achieving around 5% additional return per year (with Biden's term unfinished).

There is no guarantee these numbers will repeat and they must be analyzed “with a pinch of salt,” but there's no doubt that November's elections in the U.S. will be in the focus

of investors.

This column was originally published in La Segunda [LINK]