Mega IPOs, mega returns?

Initial public offerings (IPOs) are back in fashion in 2026, led by the most disruptive global companies. SpaceX, with its successful space trips, and Anthropic, along with OpenAI's eventual listing, which have established themselves as AI leaders, promise record amounts of capital raising in public markets. This undoubtedly raises multiple questions for investors.

First, the recent changes to the rules for inclusion in market indices are a risky step. In the world of investing via funds and ETFs, the management rule involves following a “benchmark” that represents a market under established criteria. Historically, a new issue had to wait 3 months to be included; SpaceX and Anthropic have managed to push to lower that threshold to just 15 days. This should bring very relevant rapid buying flows (some estimate over USD 30 billion), given the size of the funds that track these indices.

On the other hand, the expected return of these companies, although uncertain, has important risks in the academic evidence. Unlike in the past, private markets today play a fundamental role and carry out massive capital raises before going to market. In addition, the announced listings will be for only a small fraction of ownership (less than an estimated 3%), which, added to the expectation, could cause relative over-demand, artificially raising the price and hurting the medium- and long-term return.

No one can predict the market's performance, let alone that of individual companies, but in the case of these mega IPOs, the risks are in plain sight.

Column written by José Ignacio Villarroel for Diario La Segunda